Market Cycle

Kevin said...
John Murphy once put up a graph showing sectors peaking vs the market cycle: XLF leading, then XLI, finally XLE. When XLE peaks, XLF is already down for a while. This market reflects that sequence, in a shorter time frame.
Kevin said...
i don't know how to upload the exact graph right now. but the "perfChart" function of stockchart.com gives you detailed results. http://stockcharts.com/charts/performance/perf.html?xle,xlf,xli
like2swing said...
Kenin, thanks for the perfchart. I can see it. XLE reaches DMA 200 today ($52). Its previous peak is $53.

Laogua said... May 7, 2009 8:57
今天healthcare板块不跌反涨，QJ昨天推荐LLY已经突破，大家有啥看法
杨过 said...
市场下跌时防御性sector: e.g. healthcare, utilities 会表现较好. 这也侧面说明新一轮跌势开始.(At least a couple of days).

QQQ said... May 13, 2009 4:54 PM
If mkt do recover from here, the order of bounce should be: QQQQ (leading components), Financial, then commodities..
this was the order of down side move, should be the order of recover. ALL in ALL SPX needs stay above 875, otherwise, the selling volume will jump in.

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Market Rotation Strategy
youfala.com posted by Brainteaser
先推荐这本书Book
再对书的内容稍微做一个介绍.

前阵子我一直在寻找一个良好的Market Rotation 的鉴别办法.
其中一个比较粗糙的想法就是,
连续观察section Money flow
http://www.sectorspdr.com/sectortracker/

在这里可以观察,Market 当天, 5天, 一月,三月, 一年, 52 weeks 的money flow 情况.
(题外话, 查查1个月和3个月的money flow, 就知道当前的market 的气氛了)
然后再去bigcharts找一下关心section的领头羊就可以了
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/industry/bigcharts-com/


而这本书里介绍的方法就是经过backtest的成功的system了.

首先,寻找6月了表现最好的ETF,进行投资, 每个月底的时候,只要ETF表现
还在前三,就不换,不然就换新的ETF.
同资金投资两个ETF开始.

6个月是不是太长了, 这样找出来的section rotation 还行么?
Anyway, backtest 结果在书中,效果很好.

更加精细的方法,就是由每月底的重新换仓位,改成每个礼拜的仓位调整.
并且加重最后一段时间的权重.来衡量Market的真正Rotation.

具体如何计算书里有介绍.
比较省力气的就是, 直接去看每个周末的, 他们的web update报告
http://www.etftradingstrategies.com/analysis.htm
下载pdf 看,包括international 的 Market Rotation 资料都有了.
是免费的.
Backtest数据是摆着的. 所以更加可信可操作.