Chicago PMI and ISM Mfg Index

Case Study-Chicago PMI and ISM Mfg Index April 30,2009
QQQ said...
I am eating my lunch here and my partnar just sent me a note remind me tomorrow 10AM we have ISM number release. Because today's Chicago PMI is GOOD (40.1), tomorrow's ISM will NOT be bad.
Previous Consensus Consensus Range Actual
Business Barometer Index - Level 31.4 35.0 33.0 to 38.0 40.1
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/ecalendar/index.html
Plus tonight both China/HK and European mkt are closed, it is very easy for mkt MM to manipulate premkt open. If they do make ES at 870+ at cash mkt open (9:30PM) then they will be able to make 880 again on better than expected ISM number.

regarding to mkt, tomorrow 10am is release of ISM. 10am is natual time for reversal, so do expect a upside move, then watch very carefully around 2:30, or anytime after lunch for distribution/exit signs. why wants hold over the weekend? notice, over the past few weeks, there were Later Friday buyers to hold over weekend, expect next week's continuation, if tomorrow we see this bahavior changes to end of day sell, then we know next week will be a correction week, at least it is going to be a normal WWW week.

laogua said...
The key point in this case is according to the first day's Chicago PMI, we can predict the next day's ISM Mfg Index(The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index). Then we will know what MM want to do.