Tips for QuoteTracker (QT)

Tips for QuoteTracker (QT):
by Benmao

since QT is our default real-time charting software for real-time trading, i would like to share some tips below:

1) save currenrt QT setting;
When you receive a new QT layout file (*.slt),
try to save your current layout setting first
by go to "File" -> "Save Layout .." -> "Save as" then choose a filename.

2) load new QT setting:
then you can load the SLT file you receive, by going to "File" -> "Load layout ..." -> "choose layout", then pick the new layout file.

3) watch different ticker:
if you want to watch different stock ticker, such as from ES to spy, mouse click the chart first, then from keyboard enter "spy", it will give you a small menu to accept the change, just click save it will change the chart to spy.

4) bring up a new chart along with new setting:
if you want to bring up a new chart with different chart setting, mouse click a 5-min chart first, then right click your mouse, choose "save chart template" -> "create new template -> pick a template name, such as "my 5-min chart";

then mouse click the same 5-min chart, right click the mouse, then choose "new chart" -> "my 5-min chart", then it will bring up a new chart for your stock. then you can use that chart to add/remove indicator, or change the stock ticker, then save the chart template as different name, such as "my second 5-min chart".

5) if you like you current layout, then go to QT -> "File" -> "Save layout" -> "Save as..", then pick a file name, such as my-qt-setting-20090626.slt. then save it.

next time when QT is ran, by default it will bring up the last layout before exit.

The Steps and early signals on Commodity Lead pull-back or crash

The Steps and early signals on Commodity Lead pull-back or crash, here is what we should learn from today's decisive pull back (20 points) June 15,2009

(1) Today's commodity move was signaled 3 days back (last Thursday) when gold dropped hard and broke trendline. This is early signal that commodities were in trouble. If we realize that, we should have shorted/put all commodities! From OIH, to POT, From GDX to FCX, OIL/Metal/Ag/Steel/Coal, etc, etc. If not Thursday, then Friday was the last chance to load commodity shorts/puts. I now believe last Friday was big Boys unload day, while they held OIL price steady.

(2) The second signal was TLT was not doing down after 30 yr bond auction. This means USD is hit the bottom (this one I did catch it and repeated saying I believe USD is going to bounce after bond auction) .

(3) The third, I also got this one: the low volume! it is now getting clear and clear that Fed Ben is pulling $ out of mkt that causing the liquidation drain. That means he will not pump stocks till get yields ($TNX) back to low 3's (now 37.13)

SRS 15 min EOD system (16/34 EMA)

Trading Rules:

Long
Entry: When the fast 16 EMA crosses above the slow 34EMA
Exit: When the fast 16EMA crosses below the slow 34EMA OR exited the last minute of the day (EOD)

Short
Entry: When the fast 16EMA crosses below the slow 34EMA
Exit: When the fast 16 EMA crosses above the slow 34EMA, go Long OR exited the last minute of the day (EOD)

Performance:

$5,000 account starts 5/1/2009

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How To Trade Breakouts

Wahaa said...
7 COMMON BREAKOUT PATTERNS.
Check your favorites stocks whether they have the following patterns:
http://ibankcoin.com/chart_addict/?p=818

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http://breakpointtrades.com/watch_rules.htm

Some basic rules:
1. Volume is crucial. When looking at a chart for a good entry, the key to successful trading is an increase in volume. Chart breaks without volume have a much lower probability of success.
2. Only trade breakouts with an excellent volume % relative to their 60-day volume average. Some programs like Medved Quote Tracker will provide this information for you. The 60-day moving average can also be found on Yahoo Finance under detailed quotes. Trading breakouts with big volume % will greatly enhance your probability of a successful trade. This is especially true when day trading or swing trading. (Please note: Increased volume is not as important when shorting a stock.)
Here is a simple formula you can use to determine the volume % at any point during a trading day:
[Total volume / hours into the trading day] multiplied by 6.5 (trading hours in a day)

Here's an Example:
Stock ABC has a breakpoint of $10.25 with a 60-day average volume of 500,000 shares. At 11:30AM, stock ABC breaks the $10.25 price resistance (breakpoint) with a volume of 100,000 shares.
Does this breakout possess a high probability of success? The answer is NO. Even though ABC has broken out above the 10.25 resistance level, using the formula above, the adjusted volume of 325,000 shares does not meet or exceed the 60-day average volume.
100,000 / 2 = 50,000
50,000 x (6.5) = 325,000

3. It is a good idea to avoid entering new positions in the first 15 minutes after the market open.
4. Avoid holding a position into earnings as this can result in a major loss. A Positive earnings surprise can result in a significant gain, but the potential reward usually does not merit the risk.
5. Do not overweight your trading resources in one position.
6. Do not enter a position early. Wait for a pattern to setup, make sure it has above average volume, then only enter only after the price has traded through the breakout price.
7. It's a good habit to sell 1/2 your trading position on an initial move above resistance and reset stops at entry to ensure a profitable trade. Use mental stops to avoid large losses.rket open.
8. Avoid averaging down if a position goes against you. Maintain proper mental stops. If the stock moves back up, you can always reenter.
9. Keep your emotions even. Do not become exuberant when trades go well and do not become depressed when trades do not work. Maintaining an even temperament in the short term will enable you to trade for the long term.

NYMO

McClellan Oscillator

Developed by Sherman and Marian McClellan, the McClellan Oscillator is a breadth indicator derived from each day's net advances, the number of advancing issues less the number of declining issues. Subtracting the 39-day exponential moving average from the 19-day exponential moving average of net advances forms the oscillator.

Similar to MACD, the McClellan Oscillator is a momentum indicator that is applied to the advance/decline statistics. When the 19-day EMA (shorter moving average) moves above the 39-day (longer moving average) EMA, it signals that advances are gaining the upper hand. Conversely, when the 19-day EMA declines below the 39-day EMA, it signals that declining issues are dominant. As a momentum indicator, the McClellan Oscillator attempts to anticipate positive and negative changes in the AD statistics for market timing.

Buy and sell signals are generated as well as overbought and oversold readings. Usually, readings above +100 are considered overbought and below -100 oversold. Overbought and oversold readings may vary among indices and historical precedent. Buy signals are generated when the oscillator advances from oversold levels to positive territory. Sell signals are generated on declines from overbought to negative territory. Traders may also look for positive or negative divergences to time their trades. A series of rising troughs would denote strength, while a series of declining peaks weakness.

Calculation

When calculating the McClellan Oscillator, the ratio adjusted index is often used for easier comparisons over long periods of time. The basic input for the ratio-adjusted version is no longer the daily advances minus declines. Rather, you

1. Subtract declines from advances
2. Divide the result by the total of advances plus declines, and
3. Multiply that result by 1000. (Multiplying by 1000 is simply cosmetic and lets us work with whole numbers instead of decimals.)

The rest of the calculations for the Oscillator are the same.

Example

The above chart shows the breakdown of the McClellan Oscillator. The top window shows the 19-day EMA and the 39-day EMA of the NYSE advance-decline issues, and the lower window shows the ratio adjusted McClellan Oscillator line. Notice that the 19-day and 39-day EMA crossovers correspond with zero-line crossovers on the McClellan Oscillator.

StockCharts.com provides one-year charts of the McClellan Oscillator for the NYSE and NASDAQ markets.

MAD and MDD

BenMao said...
Any classmates here have info for how to the following patterns:
1) MAD;
2) MDD;
3) post MAD;
4) post MDD;

TA_Wen said...
$SPX-Daily: To make it clear: MAD = $NYUPV:$NYDNV > 10; MDD = $NYDNV:$NYUPV > 10. All MADs and MDDs since SPX=666.79 have been identified on this $SPX Daily chart. Typically on the day after MAD or MDD a small body bar will form, meaning that the close price will be close to the opening price.

On this daily chart a decreasing volume pattern has been identified. Three similar occurrences are also marked, with the first (Feb, 2008) being a double top, the second and the third (May, 2008 and Aug, 2008) being rolling-over mid-term tops. Keeping in mind that near the top of 930.17 we have observed distribution occurring. If the 900 mark is going to be taken out together with selling-volume picking up, we have more reason to believe that the mid-term top is passed. However, another attempt can be made to retest 930 if the 900 level is hold.

Small Cap & Large Cap Relationship

Overview:
During major market rallies, small caps usually lead the large caps.

As an example, if you see that the Market is rallying, but the Small Caps are lagging behind or falling, then the Market rally will likely end as well unless the Small Caps recover. Likewise, if the Market is falling, but the Small Caps begin to rally, this may be an idication that the Market Market correction may soon be over.

When the Ratio is trending up, small caps are leading and indicates the jmarket can support a rally.